What
is it with Republicans and Climate Change? According to every Republican
talking head, global warming and its associated climate change are a huge hoax
perpetrated by a conspiracy of Democratic Party talking heads and the worldwide
community of climate scientists who are making false claims and alleging a
false consensus because they are getting paid to do so. In support of these
startling claims, they cherry pick data so as to create the appearance of doubt
and confusion where none really exists. This tactic has been used successfully
for years by the tobacco industry to undermine the credibility of the science
relating addiction and cancer to cigarette smoking. For decades people died,
confident that the link to cancer had not yet been “proven.” Finally, the
evidence became so overwhelming that the deniers could no longer convince
enough people that doubt was the wisest conclusion regarding whether smoking
was safe or not.
The same
strategy of spreading doubt and confusion where the science is clear is now
currently being waged by the Republican party. The hope is that doubt will be
maintained as the wisest conclusion regarding the burning of fossil fuels. Just
as with cigarette smoking, confusion and doubt are the friends of the moneyed
interests. Even among the Republican deniers there is confusion as to what to
confuse.
Republican
talking heads at all levels confuse two issues: 1. Is the average temperature
of Earth rising? The evidence for this is overwhelming and not an item of
belief but of fact. Some of the currently observable indicators of global
warming, trends that take decades to establish, are
·
disrupted
weather patterns and severity of storms
·
changed
migratory patterns
·
rising
tree lines to higher elevations
·
diminished
glacial melt due to diminished glaciers
·
rising
sea level due to thermal expansion
·
net
loss of polar ice
·
diminished
thickness of arctic ocean ice
·
accelerating
melting of the Greenland ice pack
The
consequences in coastal real estate lost and the increasing height of tidal surges during hurricanes as the ocean rises have been widely
discussed. However, more serious than real estate investments is life itself.
About
30% of the world's population depends on glacial melt to supply its drinking
water. With glaciers disappearing at an alarming rate, available drinking water
is endangered as well. Think about where loyalties should lie: with the moneyed
interests who own coalfields or with humanity. That's a pretty stark choice,
but not a scientifically implausible one. And it is beginning to happen before
our eyes in Asia. Global warming threatens drinking water security.
All these
indicators are equivalent to looking out the window to see if it is raining.
Republican talking heads will point to some measurement or other that by itself
would seem to suggest no global warming. That’s like pointing to some model
that says the chance of rain today is 60% while the head out the window sees
the rain. That’s what is meant by cherry picking the data. The science is settled.
The warming of Earth is readily visible by the effects of climate change and disrupted
weather patterns as well as by independent measurements from monitoring
stations worldwide as well as from satellite data.
The other
issue for Republican attack by sewing doubt and confusion with confidence is whether human activity
(burning fossil fuels) is driving global warming. Republicans conflate the
certainty in the case of global warming and the high probability for the case
that human activity is a major driver for global warming to diminish the
credibility of the climate change argument. Their claim is that where doubt exists, the science
is not settled. In other words, the case for human influence is not proven. This is a bogus argument because very rarely does empirical
science deal with proving anything. Its business is to establish a high probability that its conclusions
are correct. That is exactly the case with the conclusions of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Experimental scientists leave
“proofs” to the mathematicians.
However,
let’s take a closer look at human influence on climate. It is well known that
carbon dioxide, CO2, is a significant greenhouse gas. Indeed, so is
water. The major products of combustion of fossil fuels, besides ash, are CO2
and water. Let’s look at the human contribution to putting theses gases into
the atmosphere.
There are
about 23,000 coal-fired power stations in the world. An average 500-megawatt
station takes about 14,300 train cars a year just to supply just one of these power stations with
coal. That's 329 million train cars
of coal in one year worldwide. Just one
power station produces on average 6 billion
pounds of CO2 per year. For all the power stations worldwide, that's 138 trillion pounds of CO2 per
year going into the atmosphere. Every year! Think about how much gas it takes to
make one pound of gas. Take a container and keep pumping gas into it until its
weight has increased by one point. Gases are almost weightless, right? So it
takes a lot of gas to make a pound. We are talking about putting more than a
hundred trillion of pounds of gas into the atmosphere every year. How can
Republicans claim with such certainty that the influence of such massive human
activity is negligible? Even if the science seems sketchy to them, how can they
be so certain there is no human
influence? Could it be all about money?
The
numbers above regarding the burning of coal (just one of the fossil fuels)
show there are very large dollar amounts at stake here. There are about 100
tons of coal in an average coal train car. At about $50 per ton of coal that’s
about $5000 dollars per car load. At about 14,300 car loads per year at one
station, that’s about $70,000,000 per year for the cost of coal for one
station. There are about 600 coal fired power stations in the United Sates
alone. That amounts to a minimum of about $40,000,000,000 per year just in the US, every year.
People have been killed for a lot less than that, much less lied to. This amount
of money can turn otherwise reasonably intelligent people into dangerous
advocates of something really bad. And has.
What
Killed the Dinosaurs?
by David H Spielberg
killed the dinosaurs? Really?
Was
it climate change?
A virus?
A
meteor?
Or
was it simply
that
they'd held the stage too long
had
lost their edge
and
that their time was up?